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Pie Chart for % rarity
https://breitlingsource.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=35163		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  cruvon [ Sun Nov 27, 2011 4:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Pie Chart for % rarity
Hi, just wondering if the knowledgeable guys here can come up with a sort of pie chart roughly calculating relative % rarity based on the different 806 models(based on rare dials, numbers, year produced,etc) and from different generations like Gen1, Gen2, etc. also taking into consideration the gold Navitimers, Double airplane ones, etc.? Kurt, anyone?:). Would be great in getting a relative rarity % based on the collecting experience some of you guys here have. Offcourse it might not be 100% accurate but heaps better than not having one.

Would have liked to see something like for example if was Gen1 a pie chart, slices based on

Gen1
1) AOPA Venus movement (% rarity)
2) AOPA Valjoux 72 54 (Sub divisions based on unique dials) (% rarity)
3) AOPA Valjoux 72 55 (Sub divisions based on unique dials) (% rarity)
4) ...

Gen2
1) ....
2) ..


and so on


Then maybe one overall one for the different generations

Cheers
Author:  Dracha [ Mon Nov 28, 2011 5:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pie Chart for % rarity
thats a lot of work !
why dont you start it and i'll try to add ?
here's the info I gathered so far

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=34271

including all info you have mentioned above , feel free to build further on top of that and please share what you find

as for top on my rarity list is the 1962 809 all black with wide bezel , i've only seen 2 or 3 of them so far
Author:  cruvon [ Mon Nov 28, 2011 8:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Pie Chart for % rarity
Sounds a great idea, am game! Will come up with a rough list stating configurations and rarity %'s and then a pie chart.
Btw nice watch you have there.

EDIT: Just saw your compilation and it looks to be quite exhaustive already:), well done! Maybe you should put that in web format with you as the author and post it here?:)
Author:  Yaffle [ Thu Dec 01, 2011 5:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pie Chart for % rarity
Nice job Dracha.

It's always seemed to me that one way of classifying the 806's is in the way that Rolex collectors do the
vintage subs like the 5513.

We could classify by age, but also by desirability of dial, so a gloss gilt AOPA only dial has a different collectability
than say the same dial with Breitling on the dial.

Broadly speaking I wonder how many dial variations there are from the Fifties to the Seventies?
Author:  cruvon [ Sun Dec 04, 2011 6:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Pie Chart for % rarity
Getting back to this, starting with Gen 1's and Valjoux's and looking at the 54-55 806"s,

If these serial numbers(thanks to a copy paste from Drachas's excel sheet) represented numbers produced across all the ranges of Breitlings, what % of these must have been Valjoux Navitimers. Also what % should we assume of these Valjoux ones survive today?

1954 832127 844123 numbers produced= 11996 (what % are Valjoux NAvitimers(asume 10%?) and what % should we assume survive today?(assume 75%?))
1955 844124 868778 numbers produced=24654 (what % are Valjoux NAvitimers(asume 10%?) and what % should we assume survive today?(assume 75%?))
Author:  cruvon [ Sun Dec 04, 2011 7:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Pie Chart for % rarity
Also from Dracha's excel sheet found this in Assumptions, can this be ok to take as an assumption going by the numbers? Also would it be a fair assumption to make that maybe only 75% of that number could be surviving today?

Quote:
Dracha: "there's 5863 serialnumbers between the oldest V72 and the youngest V72. Assuming the early Navitimers made up about 30% of production of Breitling chrono's (Navi's , AVI's , Chronomats were there any others ?) around 2000 pieces with the V72 were produced as a Navitimer (and 4000 others)"


Dracha, when you mean oldest and youngest V72, do you mean the ones we currently have encountered from live examples and we can be sure that say all Valjoux 72's between these earliest and latest ones encountered had a fixed serial range not shared by other models?
Author:  Dracha [ Mon Dec 05, 2011 12:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pie Chart for % rarity
cruvon wrote:
Dracha, when you mean oldest and youngest V72, do you mean the ones we currently have encountered from live examples and we can be sure that say all Valjoux 72's between these earliest and latest ones encountered had a fixed serial range not shared by other models?


thats the ones I have seen and have been able to get serial numbers from

and the serial numbers are , i think, shared between all Chrono model's , hence my reasoning that in this serial number range there are also AVI's and Chronomats
Author:  WatchFred [ Mon Dec 05, 2011 1:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pie Chart for % rarity
Dracha wrote:
cruvon wrote:
Dracha, when you mean oldest and youngest V72, do you mean the ones we currently have encountered from live examples and we can be sure that say all Valjoux 72's between these earliest and latest ones encountered had a fixed serial range not shared by other models?

thats the ones I have seen and have been able to get serial numbers from
and the serial numbers are , i think, shared between all Chrono model's , hence my reasoning that in this serial number range there are also AVI's and Chronomats


the number range is shared between all chronographs, so not only AVIs and Chronomats but many, many more, most of them probably higher volume than the 806s ....

There is no proof that all the numbers in the defined range were actually produced (look at the huge differences in the list below), I actually consider this highly unlikely.

I am afraid there is just no way to deduce production quantities of specific models without original production records.

Image
Author:  Roffensian [ Mon Dec 05, 2011 5:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Pie Chart for % rarity
WatchFred wrote:

I am afraid there is just no way to deduce production quantities of specific models without original production records.



Yep, that answer hasn't changed in the week since cruvon last asked it.
Author:  cruvon [ Mon Dec 05, 2011 3:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Pie Chart for % rarity
Thanks Dracha, WatchFred, Roff... Roff, you did confirm that the serials were shared across models however my question above is slightly different this time:)...for example say 1 to 10 are serials for AVI's, Navitimers and Chronomats in 1954..would it be right to say that serials went like say 1 to 3 for AVI's, 4-7 for Navitimers and 8 to 10 to Chronomats? So if that was the case and we had examples of the earliest and latest NAvitimers say with numbers 5 and 7, then we could deduce that there were about 3 Navitimers produced(i.e serials 5, 6 and 7)?
Or were the serials all jumbled up amongst the models with no specific subset ordering?
Author:  cruvon [ Tue Dec 06, 2011 6:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Pie Chart for % rarity
anyone?
Author:  WatchFred [ Tue Dec 06, 2011 11:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Pie Chart for % rarity
cruvon wrote:
anyone?


cruvon, I understood your question, but, as I wrote before, we just do not have the information you are looking for.

yes, it does make a lot of (theoretical) sense that number ranges were defined for specific lines, as they definitely did not have a real time online database to number all chronos across all model lines and produced by several case manufacturers in sequence.

But the only proof of this would be the Breitling production records that seem to exist (M. Heist refers to them), but we just do not have them (yet?).

From the rather small sample we have seen/owned/handled nothing pops out at you that would help us to define such model specific ranges, only Kurt B probably had enough 806s to maybe give us a lead here ?
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